Eva Ng Design

Overview:

Through Foresight research, technique, and academic writing, I formed two trends in card formats. They still need further environment scans, trend analysis, and participatory alignment in real project for robust understanding. But we, in a group project, formed four possible future scenarios through being methodological and using foresight tools; and then windtunneled against business strategy.

Topic:

Green-tech, Space junk, and Space habitat

The two trends are:

1) Sustainable living had not been adopted in both Space and Earth; 2) Space governance is in motion

Participate:

solo (2 weeks in 2021) & group work (6-8 weeks in 2021)

Trend Cards:

Sustainable living had not been adopted in both Space and Earth:

Space governance is in motion:

Scenarios:

A team of four decided to venture into the Future of Psychological Well-being in Space. My role in this group project is to ensure using and guiding a Foresight methodology mindset instead of creating unrelated plots and making decisions on choosing random foresight tools to make sense of the involving domains.

Our Process:

1. We began with individual desk research under an undirected viewing approach for a broad scan of signals, trends, and drivers related to our topic – psychological wellbeing within The Future(s) of Space.

2. We reviewed our signals, trends, and drivers using the STEEPV (+Event) framework to deepen our understanding of the contexts and potential influences presented.

3. We then practiced multiple foresight scenario-making methodologies, including 2X2, The Four Generic Archetypes, Causal Layered Analysis, and the Manoa method.

4. We decided to use the 2X2 framework with inspiration from The 4 Generic Archetypes. While the 2x2 is “well-promoted in Foresight literature and appears to need less interpretation”(Curry & Schultz, 2009, p.42), which provided us clarity and distinctions, The Four Generic Archetypes provided a better understanding of what was happening in the broader environment than using the 2x2 alone. Combining the two frameworks gave us a more wholesome look to inform potential changes, patterns, and directions. There were noticeable overlaps in ideas between the two frameworks, as shown below:

We looked into polarities and archetype projections to form 4 possible scenarios of the futures (leaning toward creative-based):

I was responsible for Big Bang on Techno-Health and the system is as following:

We also completed plot-based day-in-a-life stories and their asssoicated Design Fiction for imagination and immersion. The Design Fiction are as following:

Photoshop and illustration credit to: Alejandra Farías

Learning: I need to lead the team to strengthen their system thinking in scenarios construction and day-in-a-life's context with Research Ops.

Business strategies and windtunneling:

We back strategized a set of medium to long-term business strategies based on the company's (a mock tech-and-wellbeing corporation that we created, namely WeMedics) innovative portfolio. We then windtunneled the strategies against the four possible scenarios (displayed above) to check the future fits. During this process, I ensured Mission, Vision, and Value are aligned with the product offerings, strategies developed for mid and long-term vision, consider different business or industry's ups-and-downs, and a windtunnel evaluation criteria using financial fit, strategic fit, risk evaluation, and company's cutlural fit.

WeMedics

WeMedics' strategies

To windtunnel

I also flag that WeMedics belongs to the high-tech industry with many critical uncertainties that traditional semi-annual or yearly planning does not work. The company needs to constantly scanning, check strategy fit with the current environment(s), be reactive to changes, and operate flexibly. Only use the windtunnel results as an initial check.

* An additional Strategic Foresight work (published along at Globethics.net) regarding public education using history analysis and macro to micro drivers, trends, signals, uncertainty, and counter force analysis is available upon request. Deliverables include analysis, 4 constructive-based scenarios, and stress testing.